Pre-Seed Financial Model Template
For founders who need to model cash, runway, and unit economics without a CFO. Includes formulas, two business models (SaaS and non-SaaS), and a realistic example.
For founders who need to model cash, runway, and unit economics without a CFO. Includes formulas, two business models (SaaS and non-SaaS), and a realistic example.
Overview
This template is designed for Google Sheets and includes:
- Unit Economics Tab — CAC, LTV, payback period, churn
- Revenue Projections Tab — Two scenarios (conservative, aggressive), monthly breakdown
- Expense Budget Tab — Team, operations, marketing, runway calculation
- Cash Flow Tab — Burn rate, runway, next funding date
- Key Metrics Dashboard — Auto-updating KPIs
- Sensitivity Analysis — “What if?” modeling
You don’t need a finance degree. All formulas are written out. Column letters and row numbers are explicit. Just plug in your numbers.
How to Use This Template
Step 1: Make a Copy
- Go to [Google Sheets Template Link] or use your own blank sheet
- File > Make a copy
- Rename: “[Your Company Name] - Financial Model”
Step 2: Fill the Blue Cells
- All cells are color-coded
- Blue cells = enter your data
- Green cells = formulas (don’t edit)
- Gray cells = labels (for reference)
Step 3: Check the Dashboard
- Go to the Dashboard tab
- All numbers auto-update as you change assumptions
- Share this with investors (hide the detailed tabs if needed)
TAB 1: Unit Economics
Purpose: Prove each customer is profitable and unit economics improve with scale.
Structure
| Metric | Q1 2025 (Actual) | Q2 2025 (Proj) | Q3 2025 (Proj) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACQUISITION | ||||
| Sales & Marketing Spend | €6,000 | €9,000 | €15,000 | Hiring salesperson Q2 |
| New Customers Acquired | 10 | 25 | 50 | Ramp-up assumption |
| CAC (Cost per customer) | €600 | €360 | €300 | CAC should decrease as you scale |
| REVENUE PER CUSTOMER | ||||
| ACV (Annual Contract Value) | €1,800 | €1,800 | €1,800 | Price per customer per year |
| Monthly price per customer | €150 | €150 | €150 | ACV / 12 |
| LIFETIME VALUE | ||||
| Monthly churn rate | 5% | 4% | 3% | Target: <3% for retention |
| Customer lifespan (months) | 20 | 25 | 33 | 1 / monthly churn rate |
| Gross margin % | 75% | 75% | 75% | Revenue after COGS (infra) |
| LTV (Lifetime Value) | €13,500 | €16,875 | €22,500 | ACV × Gross margin % × Lifespan |
| PAYBACK & EFFICIENCY | ||||
| LTV:CAC Ratio | 22.5 | 46.9 | 75 | Target: >3:1 (excellent: >10:1) |
| CAC Payback Period (months) | 4.8 | 2.4 | 2.0 | Months to break even per customer |
Formulas Explained
CAC (Cost per customer):
Cell D6: =D5 / D7
(Sales & Marketing Spend Q2) / (New Customers Acquired Q2)
= €9,000 / 25 = €360
Customer Lifespan (months):
Cell D16: =1 / D15
1 / Monthly churn rate
= 1 / 0.04 = 25 months
LTV (Lifetime Value):
Cell D19: =D11 * D17 * D16
(ACV) × (Gross margin %) × (Customer lifespan)
= €1,800 × 0.75 × 25 = €16,875
Alternative (if you track MRR):
LTV = (MRR per customer) / (Monthly churn %) × (Gross margin %)
= €150 / 0.04 × 0.75 = €16,875 (same result)
LTV:CAC Ratio:
Cell D21: =D19 / D6
(LTV) / (CAC)
= €16,875 / €360 = 46.9:1
CAC Payback Period (months):
Cell D23: =D6 / D9
(CAC) / (Monthly price per customer)
= €360 / €150 = 2.4 months
Example Data (SaaS Model: Payroll Software)
| Metric | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&M Spend | €6,000 | €9,000 | €15,000 |
| New Customers | 10 | 25 | 50 |
| CAC | €600 | €360 | €300 |
| ACV | €1,800 | €1,800 | €1,800 |
| Churn | 5% | 4% | 3% |
| Lifespan | 20 months | 25 months | 33 months |
| Gross Margin | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| LTV | €13,500 | €16,875 | €22,500 |
| LTV:CAC | 22.5:1 | 46.9:1 | 75:1 |
| Payback | 4.8 mo | 2.4 mo | 2.0 mo |
Gross Margin Calculation for SaaS
For a SaaS company, Gross Margin is revenue minus infrastructure (hosting, third-party APIs, payment processing).
Example: Payroll software at €150/month per customer
Monthly revenue per customer: €150
Infrastructure costs per customer:
• Cloud hosting (AWS): €30
• Payment processor (2.2% fee): €3.30
• Tax API subscriptions: €5
• Support tools (Intercom): €2
Total COGS per customer: €40.30
Gross margin = (€150 - €40.30) / €150 = 73%
Rounded: 75% is realistic for B2B SaaS at scale.
Churn Rate Guidance
| Churn Rate | Interpretation | Status |
|---|---|---|
| 10%+ monthly | Critical; product has issues | Red flag |
| 5-10% monthly | High; improving retention is priority | Yellow |
| 3-5% monthly | Acceptable for pre-PMF stage | Green |
| 1-3% monthly | Excellent; product-market fit signal | Excellent |
| <1% monthly | Only enterprise SaaS achieves this | N/A for pre-seed |
What causes churn:
- Insufficient support (new user didn’t complete onboarding)
- Better competitor (they switched)
- Budget cut (customer’s business downsized)
- Product doesn’t fit (wrong use case)
How to reduce churn:
- Nail onboarding (first 30 days is make-or-break)
- Monthly customer check-in calls (catch problems early)
- Build features customers specifically ask for
- Improve support response time
Red Flags in Unit Economics
| Metric | Red Flag | What to Do |
|---|---|---|
| CAC > ACV | You’re spending more to acquire than you earn | Reduce S&M spend or increase price |
| CAC Payback > 12 months | Too long to recoup acquisition cost | Improve onboarding, reduce CAC |
| LTV:CAC < 3:1 | Unit economics don’t work | Either cut CAC by 50% or double LTV |
| Monthly churn > 5% | Company is leaky | Pause growth; focus on retention |
| Gross margin < 50% | Unsustainable cost structure | Renegotiate vendor contracts or raise prices |
TAB 2: Revenue Projections
Purpose: Model two revenue scenarios (conservative, aggressive) to understand upside and downside.
Structure (12-Month Projection)
| Month | Scenario | New Customers | Avg Existing Customers | MRR | Total Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | Conservative | 10 | 0 | €1,500 | €1,500 |
| Jan | Aggressive | 15 | 0 | €2,250 | €2,250 |
| Feb | Conservative | 12 | 10 | €3,300 | €3,300 |
| Feb | Aggressive | 20 | 15 | €5,250 | €5,250 |
| … | … | … | … | … | … |
| Dec | Conservative | 60 | 410 | €61,500 | €61,500 |
| Dec | Aggressive | 100 | 650 | €97,500 | €97,500 |
Formula Examples
Existing Customers (month M):
Month Feb Conservative:
= (Month Jan existing) + (Month Jan new) - (Month Jan churn)
= 0 + 10 - (10 × 5%) = 9.5 ≈ 10 customers
Month March Conservative:
= 10 + 12 - (10 × 5%) = 21.5 ≈ 21 customers
MRR (Monthly Recurring Revenue):
MRR = (New customers this month × price) + (Existing customers × price × (1 - churn %))
Month Feb Conservative:
= (12 × €150) + (10 × €150 × 0.95)
= €1,800 + €1,425
= €3,225
Total Revenue (annual):
Year 1 Revenue = Sum of all monthly MRR
Conservative scenario: €1,500 + €3,300 + €4,800 + ... = €36,900
Aggressive scenario: €2,250 + €5,250 + €8,100 + ... = €59,400
Example Data (12-Month SaaS Projection)
Conservative Scenario (baseline, achievable):
| Month | New Customers | Avg Existing | MRR | Cumulative ARR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 10 | 0 | €1,500 | €1,500 |
| Feb | 12 | 10 | €3,225 | €4,725 |
| Mar | 15 | 20 | €5,175 | €9,900 |
| Apr | 20 | 33 | €7,575 | €17,475 |
| May | 25 | 50 | €10,425 | €27,900 |
| Jun | 30 | 73 | €13,650 | €41,550 |
| Jul | 35 | 100 | €17,325 | €58,875 |
| Aug | 40 | 130 | €21,450 | €80,325 |
| Sep | 45 | 163 | €25,875 | €106,200 |
| Oct | 50 | 200 | €30,600 | €136,800 |
| Nov | 55 | 240 | €35,700 | €172,500 |
| Dec | 60 | 283 | €41,325 | €213,825 |
Year 1 Total Revenue (Conservative): €36,425 (average MRR across 12 months × 12)
Aggressive Scenario (optimistic, requires strong execution):
| Month | New Customers | Avg Existing | MRR | Cumulative ARR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 15 | 0 | €2,250 | €2,250 |
| Feb | 20 | 15 | €5,250 | €7,500 |
| Mar | 28 | 33 | €8,970 | €16,470 |
| Apr | 35 | 60 | €13,575 | €30,045 |
| May | 45 | 93 | €19,485 | €49,530 |
| Jun | 55 | 135 | €26,475 | €76,005 |
| Jul | 65 | 185 | €34,425 | €110,430 |
| Aug | 75 | 245 | €43,275 | €153,705 |
| Sep | 85 | 315 | €52,875 | €206,580 |
| Oct | 95 | 395 | €63,375 | €269,955 |
| Nov | 105 | 485 | €74,625 | €344,580 |
| Dec | 115 | 585 | €86,775 | €431,355 |
Year 1 Total Revenue (Aggressive): €54,750 (average MRR across 12 months × 12)
Conservative vs. Aggressive Scenarios
Conservative scenario:
- Assume 50% of sales pipeline converts (vs. 80% in aggressive)
- Assume hiring delays (salesperson starts in month 3, not month 2)
- Assume higher churn (5% vs. 3%)
- Use this for financial planning (budgeting, runway)
Aggressive scenario:
- Assume strong PMF signals (customer referrals, warm intros)
- Assume quick hiring ramps (salespeople productive by month 2)
- Assume improving retention (churn drops from 5% to 2%)
- Use this to show upside to investors
Reality: Most startups end up between the two. Budget for conservative; celebrate if you hit aggressive.
MoM Growth Rate
Month-over-month (MoM) growth = (MRR current month - MRR previous month) / MRR previous month
Feb to Mar Conservative:
= (€5,175 - €3,225) / €3,225 = 60% MoM growth
Dec to Nov Conservative:
= (€41,325 - €35,700) / €35,700 = 16% MoM growth
Observation: Early-stage growth is fast (60%+ MoM), then plateaus as you scale.
Target: 10%+ MoM growth is healthy for pre-Series A.
TAB 3: Expense Budget
Purpose: Model your burn rate and forecast runway (how many months until you run out of money).
Structure (12-Month Budget)
| Category | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | … | Dec | Annual Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEAM (Salaries) | |||||||
| Founder 1 salary (you) | €2,000 | €2,000 | €2,000 | €2,000 | … | €2,000 | €24,000 |
| Founder 2 salary | €2,000 | €2,000 | €2,000 | €2,000 | … | €2,000 | €24,000 |
| Salesperson (hired Apr) | €0 | €0 | €0 | €3,500 | … | €3,500 | €28,000 |
| Engineer (hired Jun) | €0 | €0 | €0 | €0 | … | €3,500 | €21,000 |
| Subtotal Team | €4,000 | €4,000 | €4,000 | €7,500 | … | €9,000 | €97,000 |
| OPERATIONS | |||||||
| Cloud hosting (AWS, GCP) | €400 | €500 | €600 | €700 | … | €1,500 | €7,200 |
| SaaS tools (Slack, Notion, etc.) | €300 | €300 | €300 | €300 | … | €300 | €3,600 |
| Office/coworking | €0 | €0 | €0 | €500 | … | €500 | €3,000 |
| Insurance, legal, accounting | €200 | €200 | €200 | €200 | … | €200 | €2,400 |
| Subtotal Ops | €900 | €1,000 | €1,100 | €1,700 | … | €2,500 | €16,200 |
| MARKETING & SALES | |||||||
| Paid ads (LinkedIn, Google) | €1,000 | €1,500 | €2,000 | €3,000 | … | €5,000 | €24,000 |
| Content, events | €500 | €500 | €500 | €500 | … | €500 | €6,000 |
| Subtotal Marketing | €1,500 | €2,000 | €2,500 | €3,500 | … | €5,500 | €30,000 |
| TOTAL MONTHLY BURN | €6,400 | €7,000 | €7,600 | €12,700 | … | €17,000 | €143,200 |
Formula: Runway Calculation
Runway (months) = (Current Cash Balance) / (Average Monthly Burn)
Example:
Current cash: €500,000
Average monthly burn (Year 1): €143,200 / 12 = €11,933
Runway: €500,000 / €11,933 = 42 months
Or, more realistically:
Runway = (Current Cash) / (Actual Monthly Burn in Month M)
Month 6 burn: €12,700
Remaining cash after 6 months: €500,000 - (€6,400 + €7,000 + €7,600 + €12,700 + €10,400 + €11,000) = €445,200
Remaining runway: €445,200 / €12,700 = 35 months
Cash Burn vs. Revenue
Net Burn = Monthly Burn - Monthly Revenue
Month 1: €6,400 burn - €1,500 revenue = €4,900 net burn
Month 6: €12,700 burn - €10,425 revenue = €2,275 net burn
Month 12: €17,000 burn - €41,325 revenue = -€24,325 (i.e., revenue exceeds burn; not burning cash!)
Key insight: If revenue exceeds burn by Month 12, you're on track to profitability.
If burn exceeds revenue at Month 12, you'll need Series A funding.
Expense Categories Explained
Team (Salaries):
- Founder 1 & 2: €2,000/month (below market, but sustainable for early-stage)
- Salesperson (hired Month 4): €3,500/month base + commission (assume commission is in S&M marketing budget)
- Engineer (hired Month 6): €3,500/month (junior engineer; senior would be €5,000+)
- Employer taxes/benefits: Add 30-40% on top of salary in some EU countries (not shown here to keep simple)
Operations:
- Cloud hosting: Scales with users (start €400, grows to €1,500 by December)
- SaaS tools: Slack, Notion, Stripe, etc. (€300/month typical for startup stack)
- Office: Coworking or shared space (optional; remote = €0)
- Legal/accounting: Incorporation, contracts, bookkeeping (€200/month)
Marketing & Sales:
- Paid ads: LinkedIn, Google Ads, industry publications (scale with headcount)
- Content/events: Blog, webinars, conference sponsorships (€500/month)
- Note: Salesperson salary is under Team, not Sales (Sales budget is for ads + tools)
What NOT to budget for (yet):
- Customer acquisition rebates
- Partnership commissions
- Large equipment purchases (assume bootstrapped tools)
- Excess consultant costs (recruit advisors instead)
Red Flags in Expense Budget
| Red Flag | What It Means | Fix |
|---|---|---|
| Burn rate increasing faster than revenue | You’re spending ahead of growth | Cut marketing spend or delay hires |
| Salaries > 60% of budget | You’re over-hiring | Reduce salaries or hire contractors |
| No profitability path visible | Burn exceeds revenue at Month 12 | Raise prices, reduce CAC, or cut ops costs |
| Runway < 6 months | You’ll need to fundraise soon | Begin investor conversations now |
TAB 4: Cash Flow
Purpose: Track cash in, cash out, and remaining balance each month.
Structure
| Month | Starting Cash | + Revenue | - Burn | = Ending Cash | Runway (months) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | €500,000 | €1,500 | €6,400 | €495,100 | 83 |
| Feb | €495,100 | €3,225 | €7,000 | €491,325 | 70 |
| Mar | €491,325 | €5,175 | €7,600 | €488,900 | 65 |
| Apr | €488,900 | €7,575 | €12,700 | €483,775 | 38 |
| May | €483,775 | €10,425 | €10,400 | €483,800 | 46 |
| Jun | €483,800 | €13,650 | €11,000 | €486,450 | 44 |
| Jul | €486,450 | €17,325 | €13,500 | €490,275 | 36 |
| Aug | €490,275 | €21,450 | €14,200 | €497,525 | 35 |
| Sep | €497,525 | €25,875 | €15,000 | €508,400 | 34 |
| Oct | €508,400 | €30,600 | €15,800 | €523,200 | 33 |
| Nov | €523,200 | €35,700 | €16,500 | €542,400 | 33 |
| Dec | €542,400 | €41,325 | €17,000 | €566,725 | 33 |
Formulas
Ending Cash (month M):
Cell E3 (Feb): = D3 + B3 - C3
= Starting Cash + Revenue - Burn
= €495,100 + €3,225 - €7,000 = €491,325
Runway (months remaining):
Cell F3 (Feb): = E3 / (C3 + 1)
= Ending Cash / (Monthly Burn + 1 month buffer)
= €491,325 / €7,000 = 70 months
Note: This assumes constant burn. In reality, burn increases over time.
More conservative: Runway = Ending Cash / Average monthly burn so far.
Interpretation
In the example above:
- Jan to Jun: Runway decreases (€500k → €486k) because burn > revenue
- Jul onward: Runway stabilizes because revenue approaches burn
- Key insight: By October, revenue covers most burn. Series A isn’t critical; more of an opportunity.
Runway < 6 months? Start talking to investors.
Runway < 3 months? You’re in crisis mode. Pause hiring and cut non-important spend.
Runway > 12 months? You have time to perfect product and raise when it’s strategic.
TAB 5: Key Metrics Dashboard
Purpose: Quick snapshot of health. Share this with your co-founder and investors (hide the detailed tabs).
Auto-Updating Dashboard
What to include on this tab:
MEMORA FINANCIAL DASHBOARD
January - December 2025
REVENUE & GROWTH
Current MRR (Dec 2025): €41,325
YoY ARR projection: €495,900
MoM growth rate (Nov → Dec): 16%
Customers acquired (YoY): 283
UNIT ECONOMICS
CAC (blended): €340
LTV (blended): €18,500
LTV:CAC ratio: 54:1
Payback period: 2.3 months
Monthly churn: 3.2%
PROFITABILITY PATH
Current monthly burn: €17,000
Current monthly revenue: €41,325
Net cash flow: +€24,325 (revenue > burn!)
Months to profitability: Already profitable
Runway remaining: 33 months (at current cash & burn)
TEAM & OPERATIONS
Total headcount: 4 (2 founders + 1 salesperson + 1 engineer)
Annual payroll: €97,000
Blended cost per employee: €24,250/year
FUNDRAISING
Capital raised to date: €500,000 (seed round)
Cash on hand: €566,725 (end of December)
Next funding milestone: Series A (target: €2-3M round, 18 months out)
How to Build the Dashboard
Use Google Sheets =QUERY() or =IMPORTRANGE() to pull data from other tabs. Example:
Cell B3 (Current MRR):
= QUERY(Sheet("Revenue Projections"), "SELECT F WHERE A = 'Dec Conservative'")
Or simpler, if December MRR is in cell F14 on Revenue sheet:
= Sheet("Revenue Projections")!F14
Updating the Dashboard
- Update monthly
- Share with your co-founder + board
- Highlight changes from last month (green = up, red = down)
- Add a 1-2 sentence narrative: “MRR up 16% MoM; churn down to 3%. On track for Series A readiness Q4.”
TAB 6: Sensitivity Analysis
Purpose: Answer “What if?” questions. How sensitive is profitability to key assumptions?
Structure: Test 3 Key Assumptions
Assumption 1: What if monthly churn is 5% instead of 3%?
| Scenario | LTV | LTV:CAC | Payback (months) | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base case (3% churn) | €18,500 | 54:1 | 2.3 | ✓ Healthy |
| +2% churn (5% total) | €11,100 | 32:1 | 2.3 | ⚠ Concerning |
Formula:
LTV with 5% churn:
= €1,800 × 0.75 × (1 / 0.05)
= €1,800 × 0.75 × 20
= €13,500
LTV:CAC = €13,500 / €400 = 33:1 (still healthy, but lower)
Implication: If churn increases from 3% to 5%, LTV drops 27%. Focus on retention.
Assumption 2: What if CAC increases to €500 (vs. €340)?
| Scenario | CAC | LTV:CAC | Monthly customers needed for profitability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base case (€340 CAC) | €340 | 54:1 | 90 customers/month |
| +€160 CAC (€500 total) | €500 | 37:1 | 105 customers/month |
Formula:
LTV:CAC = €18,500 / €500 = 37:1 (still excellent, but higher customer acquisition cost required)
Customers needed for profitability = Burn / (MRR per customer - CAC / 12)
= €17,000 / (€150 - €41.67)
= €17,000 / €108.33 = 157 customers/month
Implication: If CAC increases, you need to either cut CAC through word-of-mouth or increase price.
Assumption 3: What if ACV (price) increases to €200/month?
| Scenario | ACV | New LTV | Revenue impact (Year 1) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base case (€150/month) | €1,800 | €18,500 | €36,425 |
| +€50/month (€200 total) | €2,400 | €24,667 | €48,567 |
Formula:
New LTV = €2,400 × 0.75 × 33 = €24,667
Revenue impact: If you maintain same customer acquisition rate, +€50/month × 283 customers = +€14,150 in Year 1 revenue
Implication: Price increase is the fastest lever to profitability. But test with customers first (NPS may drop).
Sensitivity Table: Two-Way Analysis
How does profitability change with both CAC and Churn?
Churn 2% Churn 3% Churn 5%
CAC €300 LTV:CAC 47:1 LTV:CAC 54:1 LTV:CAC 37:1
CAC €400 LTV:CAC 35:1 LTV:CAC 41:1 LTV:CAC 27:1
CAC €500 LTV:CAC 28:1 LTV:CAC 33:1 LTV:CAC 22:1
Color code:
✓ Green (LTV:CAC > 10:1) = Healthy unit economics
⚠ Yellow (LTV:CAC 5-10:1) = Proceed with caution
✗ Red (LTV:CAC < 5:1) = Fix unit economics before scaling
Presenting Sensitivity
To investors:
- “We’re confident in CAC (acquired 283 customers, data-backed).”
- “Churn risk is the biggest variable. We’re focused on retention (NPS 62).”
- “If churn increases to 5%, LTV drops 27%, but we’re still at 33:1 LTV:CAC, which is healthy.”
To yourself:
- “Monthly churn is the metric I need to obsess over.”
- “If CAC increases, we’re in trouble. Need to prove virality or improve marketing efficiency.”
- “A €20 price increase would solve all profitability concerns. Test in Q2.”
Non-SaaS Model: Marketplace or E-commerce
If you’re building a marketplace (take a commission per transaction) or e-commerce (sell physical products), the model changes slightly.
Key Differences
SaaS Model:
- Revenue = Customers × Monthly Price
- Churn = Customers who cancel
- LTV = (Monthly price) / (Churn rate)
Marketplace/E-commerce Model:
- Revenue = Number of Transactions × Commission / Margin %
- Churn = Repeat purchase rate (higher is better)
- LTV = (Transaction value × margin) × (Lifetime transactions)
Example: Marketplace (Take 8% commission on booking)
CAC: €400 (to acquire one seller)
Avg transaction size: €500 (one seller's monthly bookings)
Commission per transaction: €40 (8%)
Avg transactions per seller (Year 1): 12 (monthly)
Gross profit per transaction: €35 (8% minus 12% payment processing)
LTV = (€35 × 12) × (1 / 5% monthly churn) = €420 × 20 = €8,400
LTV:CAC = €8,400 / €400 = 21:1
Payback = CAC / (Gross profit per transaction × avg transactions/month)
= €400 / (€35 × 1) = 11.4 months
Runway calculation is the same, but break-even depends on transaction volume, not customers.
How to Get Real Numbers
Customer Research (For Revenue Projections)
- Existing customers: Ask them how much they’ll pay (WTP study)
- Sales pipeline: Count real conversations, not wishful thinking
- Competitor pricing: Research what competitors charge (but don’t anchor solely to this)
- Pilot data: If you have 3 customers paying, project from there
Cost Research (For Expense Budget)
- Salaries: Check Glassdoor, PayScale, or ask other founders
- Cloud costs: Use AWS or GCP pricing calculator
- SaaS tools: Stripe, Zapier, Notion costs are public
- Hiring timeline: Talk to a recruiter; assume 4-6 weeks per hire
Churn Research (For Unit Economics)
- Talk to customers: Why do they stay? When would they leave?
- Industry benchmark: B2B SaaS churn is typically 3-7% monthly
- Cohort analysis: If you have 10 customers from 3 months ago, how many are still paying?
Common Modeling Mistakes
| Mistake | Why It’s Wrong | Fix |
|---|---|---|
| ”We’ll acquire 100 customers in Month 1” | No distribution channel yet | Start with 10-15, grow 30% MoM |
| ”Our CAC will be €50” | Too optimistic; ignores founder time | Include S&M team salary; assume €300-500 |
| ”Churn is 0%“ | Impossible; every product has churn | Model 3-5% monthly; prove lower later |
| ”We’ll be profitable in 6 months” | Without data, this is fiction | Show the path: revenue > burn at Month X |
| ”We need €1M to ‘prove the model‘“ | Too much too soon | Raise €300-500k to reach profitability |
| ”We’re not including customer support costs” | They exist; they grow with customers | Add €20-50/month per customer for support |
Putting It Together: The Narrative
Write this 2-paragraph summary for investors:
Example Financial Narrative (Memora):
We project €36k revenue in Year 1 (conservative scenario), growing to €200k by Year 2, with a clear path to profitability by Month 12. Unit economics are strong: CAC of €340 paid back in 2.3 months, with LTV of €18,500 per customer (54:1 LTV:CAC ratio). We’re tracking customer acquisition conservatively at 10-60 new customers per month, with a blended churn of 3.2% (below SaaS benchmark). This capital will fund 2 engineers, 1 salesperson, and operating costs through profitability. Our biggest variable is churn; we’re obsessed with retention (current NPS 62) and product stickiness.
At conservative projections, we’ll reach breakeven by Q4 2025 with €8k MRR. The aggressive scenario (assuming 30% higher customer acquisition) shows €200k by Q4 2025, de-risking Series A at that point. We’re fundraising €500k to reach these milestones and don’t anticipate needing capital beyond this round unless we pursue aggressive geographic expansion.
Final Checklist
- All blue cells filled with your data
- Revenue projections based on customer conversations (not guesses)
- Churn rate is realistic for your industry
- CAC includes all customer acquisition costs (S&M salary + ads + tools)
- Burn rate accounts for tax, benefits, office rent (true all-in costs)
- Runway is > 6 months
- Path to profitability is visible (revenue approaching burn by Month 12)
- LTV:CAC > 3:1 (preferably > 10:1)
- Sensitivity analysis shows you’ve thought through risks
- Narrative ties all the numbers together into a believable story
Template Access
Download the Google Sheets template here: [Link to be filled in by LechKaniuk.com team]
Make a copy and customize — don’t request edit access.
Last updated: January 2025
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